Since I angered some Chads on /r/investing here's why I think China is the next "big short".
Fellow idiots, I posted this comment which seems to have angered the highly sophisticated /investing community. I don't mind being downvoted but at least provide some counter arguments if you're going to be a dick. So in the pursuit of truth and tendies for all, I have prepared some juicy due diligence (DD) for WSB Capital on why China is on the verge of collapse. TL;DR at the bottom. Point 1: Defaults in China have been accelerating aggressively, and through July 2019, 274 real estate developers filed for bankruptcy, up 50% over last year. A bonus? Many Chinese state controlled banks have been filing for bankruptcy as well. Just google "china bank defaults" or something similar. Notice how many articles there are from 2019? When the banking system fails, everything else usually fails too. Point 2:The RMB has depreciated significantly. Last time this happened, in 2015-2016, there was a significant outflow of foreign invested capital. According to the IIF, outflows reached $725bn due to the currency depreciation.. This time is different why again? I have heard some arguments why there will be less outflow this time, but I struggle to buy them. Point 3: Despite wanting to operate like a developed economy, China still has not been able to shrug off the middle income trap. Their GDP per capita is comparable to countries we normally associated with being developing/emerging markets. Tangentially related to point 10. Point 4: China is an export-dependent economy, with about 20% of their exports contributing towards their GDP. Less exporting means less GDP, less consumption (because businesses make less money, they pay people less, who in turn spend less), which has a greater effect on GDP than any declines in exports would have at face value. Guess what? Chinese exports dropped 1% in August, and August imports dropped -1%, marking the 5th month this year of negative m/m export growth.. Point 5: Business confidence has been weak in China - declining at a sustained pace worse than in 2015. When businesses feel worse, they spend less, invest less in fixed assets, hire less until they feel better about the future. Which takes me to my next point. Point 6:Fixed asset investment in China has declined 30 percentage points since 2010. While rates are low, confidence is also low, and they are sitting on a record amount of leverage, which means they simply will not be able to afford additional investment. Point 7: They are an extremely levered economy with a total debt to GDP ratio of over 300%, per the IIF, which also accounts for roughly 15% of global total fucking debt. Here's an interview with someone else talking about it too. Point 8: Their central bank recently introduced a metric fuckton of stimulus into their economy. This will encourage more borrowing....add fuel to the fire. Moreover, the stimulus will mechanically likely weaken the RMB even more, which could lead to even more foreign outflows, which are already happening, see next point. Point 9: Fucking LOTS of outflows this year. As of MAY, according to this joint statement, around 40% of US companies are relocating some portion of their supply chains away from mainland. This was in May. Since May, we have seen even more tariffs imposed, why WOULD companies want to stay when exporting to the US is a lot more expensive now? Point 10: Ignoring ALL of the points above, we are in a global synchronized slowdown, with many emerging market central banks cutting rates - by the most in a decade. Investors want safety, and safe-haven denominated assets are where we have seen a lot of flocking into recently. Things that can be considered safe-havens have good liquidity, a relatively stable economy, and a predictable political environment. Would love to hear opposing thoughts if you think China is a good buy. I am not against China, nor any other country for that matter, but I am against losing money (yes, wrong sub etc.), and I can not rationalize why anyone would be putting in a bid. TL;DR: the bubble is right in front of your face, impending doom ahead, short everything, fuck /investing. Edit, since you 'tards keep asking me how to trade this, there are a few trades that come to mind:
US treasuries still have room to run (before the autists say that's not yolo enough you could trade OTM calls on UST-linked ETFs, US govvie futures for gainz)
Sell SPX companies with big supply chain exposure and heavy cost of capital, buy their competitors without these features.
Open up apparel factories in Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, and sell to the US.
Buy soybeans assuming farmers get a bailout from US
I am sure there are plenty of China based ETFs which could be played, DYOR.
Short any US listed company with mainland China domicile. If shit REALLY hits the fan between US/China, there are levers that US Govt. can pull to fuck them.
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Stocks to Watch: Infosys, Yes Bank, Vodafone Idea, Tata Steel, Adani Gas
https://preview.redd.it/9q74fr8w1ha41.jpg?width=600&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b3d1f4c9df30fa6db2df833395c391c1084792d0 Infosys: Information technology services provider Infosys Ltd declared its third quarter earnings after market hours on Friday. The company’s net profit for the third quarter ended December stood at ₹4,457 crore, up nearly 11% quarter-on-quarter. Also, the IT major’s audit committee found no evidence of financial impropriety or executive misconduct against its CEO Salil Parekh following a detailed probe into whistleblower allegations. Vodafone Idea: In view of two-year moratorium granted by the department of telecommunications (DoT) on deferred payment liabilities towards spectrum payments to telecom companies, Vodafone Idea has decided to utilize ₹2,826 crore earmarked for the same against repayment of loans and redemption of non-convertible debentures. Yes Bank: The board of directors of Yes Bank on Friday approved raising of funds up to ₹10,000 crore through a mix of equity and debt and decided not to proceed with the offer from Erwin Singh Braich-SPGP Holdings. Also, Yes Bank’s co-promoter Rana Kapoor and his family-run firms have completely exited the bank, taking their stake in the institution to nil, thereby losing all control and voting rights in the bank. Edelweiss Financial Services: The Enforcement Directorate (ED) on Friday issued summons and called for information from Edelweiss group and its Chairman Rashesh Shah in a ₹2000 crore Foreign Exchange Management Act (FEMA) case. However, the company on 12 January in a filing with exchanges said that Edelweiss has no relationship with Capstone Forex and all allegations of FEMA violations are false. Reliance Home Finance: Anil Ambani lead Reliance Home Finance on Sunday said an independent forensic audit, mandated by lenders, has found no fraud, embezzlement or diversion and siphoning of funds in the company that is seeking debt resolution. In a statement, the company said the audit made “no adverse findings” on the quantum and end-use of lending. Adani Gas: The gas distributor has sought a perpetual loan of $350 million from its promoters to finance expansion, according to a Mint report. The Adani group company has approached three promoter group entities—Adani Rail Infra Pvt. Ltd, Adani Infra India Ltd, and Adani Properties Pvt Ltd—for the loan. Adani Gas Ltd will pay an interest of 9% for the loan, and spend about $50 million of the $350 million for retail distribution. Tata Steel: The company on Friday announced that Tata Steel Netherlands Holdings B.V. (TSNHBV), a 100% subsidiary of Tata Steel Limited, has executed agreements for the refinancing of its bank debt. TSNBHV has raised term loan facilities of EUR 1.75 billion from 19 banks. This represents a reduction of EUR 500 million versus the external debt outstanding in Tata Steel Europe as of Mar 2019, enabling the standalone European business to have a more robust balance sheet. Hindustan Construction Company: Lenders of Ajit Gulabchand’s Hindustan Construction Co. Ltd. (HCC) on Friday said they were going to carve out about ₹2,100 crore of debt on the construction firm to a third-party-controlled special purpose vehicle; certain arbitration awards and claims will also move to the SPV and will significantly deleverage the company and address its asset-liability mismatch. Lupin: The pharma company on Saturday said it has received two observations from the US health regulator following the inspection of its Nagpur manufacturing facility. A prior approval inspection was carried out by the United States Food and Drug Administration at the company’s Nagpur oral solid dosage manufacturing facility between January 6-10, 2020, Lupin said in a filing to BSE. Auto Stocks: Passenger vehicles sales declined 1.24% year-on-year in December to 235,786 units as manufacturers decided to cut production to match subdued retail demand and reduce inventory of Bharat Stage -VI emission norms compliant vehicles. The fall was largely due to an 8.4% decline in passenger car sales to 142,126 units. Watch our Stock Market Target Calls Quality, Track sheet – Click Here or Subscribe us for Stock Market Trading >>>>Stock Cash Tips
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[Serious] Freelancers of /r/india, how are you dealing GST?
While GST has increased the exemption limit to 20 lakhs. It has also made it mandatory for many people who didn't need to register for service tax earlier to enroll for GST. (And there are financial penalties for those not complying even out of ignorance.)
Anyone having clients in/receiving payments from multiple states.
Anyone working for clients abroad(directly or via online marketplaces like upwork/fiverr etc.) and earning forex.(Import/export is also considered inter-state trade under GST)
People selling stuff online on ebay/amazon etc.(There was a thread about this recently)
Hey guys I'm travelling to India soon and was looking at exchanging some cash but an exchange service close to me was willing to buy a dollar for just 41 rupees! I was pretty disappointed considering the forex rate is around 50.9 rupees right now. I tried some online comparison websites for exchange services but they're all seem to not have information for the INR due to it being a closed currency. Any tips on where to get good exchange rate deals or likewise suggestions on the matter would be greatly appreciated :)
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Traveling to SL with Family from India : Itinerary and Forex Help Required
As the title says, I'm planning a trip to Sri Lanka with my family of four, from India. We'll mostly be spending our time in the Southern beaches of Dikwella and alongside areas. Here are the things I could use some help with:
What would be a good time of the year to visit?
If the trip is of about 1 week, what kind of expenses I would incur?
What are some cool local places to see? Especially, any chances of snorkelling, boating etc. in the sea?
What type of food should I try out? We are non-vegeterian.
What transport would be better to use? Is public transport good?
What's the mode of using Forex? I can always carry LKR, but was hoping some international credit card or travel card would work.
I'm definitely looking at trip advisor and travel stackexchange, but any tips / info would be highly appreciated :) If I should visit Colombo or Galle, please let me know.
India Forex Brokers Comparison. Compare India authorised forex and CFDs brokers side by side using the forex broker comparison tool or the summary table below. This broker list is sorted by the firm's ForexBrokers.com Trust Score. Forex Broker Accepts IN Residents Average Spread EUR/USD - Standard Minimum Initial Deposit Trust Score Overall Visit Site; Saxo Bank: Yes: 0.800: $10,000.00: 99: 5 ... Forex trading in India cannot be done at any land-based location as the only online forex trading is available. Unlike the stock market which has opening and closing times, the forex market remains open throughout the day as traders trade currencies across all time zones, five days of the week. Different Ways to Trade Forex; Brief Guide to Trading Forex. Step #1: Select a Currency Pair. Step ... result update: india cements q2 net profit 714m rupees vs 51m (yoy): est 380m q2 revenue 10.89b rupees vs 12.69b (yoy) q2 ebitda 2.43b rupees vs 1.5b (yoy) q2 ebitda margin 22.28% vs 11.80% (yoy) Published on 2020-11-06 11:51:22 The Top 10 Tips for Forex Trading in India. Do you want to know the best tips for forex trading in India? Of Course you do. In this article, we will explain in detail the best way to trade forex profitably in India. MS Dhoni is arguably the best captain in the world, but that does not guarantee that he will never lose a match. Similarly, however experienced a forex trader is, there is no ... Free FOREX india Currency Tips Indian Forex Markets is the Leading currency markets and one of the most widely growing markets of the world. Trading activities are increasing day by day to an enormous level. Huge & high liquidity and trading action the international currency markets are being given more and more attention by traders world wide. More traders on a daily basis speculate in the ... Forex trading plan 2020, Tani FX 8 tips in Hindi and Urdu languages. Very important tutorial for beginners. in this tutorial information about trading 2020. Forex trading a business, if your monthly profit just 10%, it’s means your 2020 year total profit 120%. That’s not bad. Maximum traders want monthly 50% to 100% profit. this is not good, this is very high risky trading. Forex is the largest financial market with high liquidity and low margin requirements. You need a best forex broker account to trade in forex. In India, you can trade only in INR based currency pairs on NSE, BSE and MSE (Metropolitan Stock Exchange). The INR based pairs in which you can trade are USD/INR, EUR/IND, GBP/INR and JPY/INR.
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