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(Reboot) ELI5 on how China fucked their own economy, chapter 6
OK Yesterday's HCFTHE was a big let down. I read on the next few chapters and I feel like there's no more point in translating anymore because the author's coherence is slipping. This is a reboot. From here on, it's all cruise speed. No translating, it's all me! (Translated) Chapter 1 (Translated) Chapter 2 (Translated) Chapter 3 (Translated) Chapter 4 (Translated) Chapter 5 Chapter 6: RMB internationalization, a dream? a future? RMB internationalization. You've heard of RMB. We all have, the legend, the curses. Some foolishness about a currency that never devalues. A closed currency. Buried beneath an opaque monetary policy... a bald, aging portrait of Mao luring investors to their dreams. An illusion that you can begin again, change your fortunes. Issuing them, though, that's not the hard part. It's internationalization. (Sorry been playing A LOT of fallout. Production is down 50% because half my office are gone and the other half...are playing with me. Seriously, fuck Chinese New year.) Except for the face culture, RMB internationalization is pretty much a national goal of China. To have their currency achieve global status will make it a rival currency for the USDollar, much like the Euros...except it's Asian. An Asian euro is crucial for China to establish its asiaphere influence zone. Having China enter IMF's basket of currencies is just a first step. Before we talk about "how", let's talk "why". Why is it important for RMB to go global. For this we will need a deep understanding of world economics, but to dumb it down to ELI5 levels, we'll simplify it down as following: World domination. Wow wow wow holy fuck upadswhat the fuck!? This escalated quickly! Sorry, but this is a fact. The British Pound, once served as the world's premier reserve currency, shaped the British Empire where the sun never. In fact, UK still hold [14 overseas territories[(https://archive.org/stream/09LONDON1039/09LONDON1039_djvu.txt), and the sun never sets on all fourteen British territories at once. Glory to the queen! OK let's double time, here's a short list of goals that RMB internationalization can help achieve:
Debt. Chinese companies have a lot of debt in USD. As of right now China don't want RMB to devalue because it would make debts harder to pay.
Getting rid of forex risk. Self explained.
Exports. With all China's debts in RMB there will be no consequence in devaluing the RMB. Will you pay $400 for a Huawei smartphone? No? How about $100? Cheaper price, it helps boosts sales volume. A lot.
Getting rid of language barrier. If you look up most common language on harmony it lists Chinese with the most number of speaker s in the world, followed by Spanish, then English. Guess what language is most common in the business world? English. Guess what language does world reserve currency countries speak? English.
Getting rid of autistic monkeys ESL teachers. Having RMB as a global currency will help China demand their business partners to start speaking Chinese, giving China home field advantage. The reason ESL teachers are needed is because China needs to do business in English. Seriously why the fuck do I need to learn English if I'm not gonna do business?
Better politics. With foreign languages kicked out of their curriculum, the Chinese population can spend more time learning useful things, such as how to worship the communist party Seriously, learning how to think politically is a mandatory subject in high school curriculum, as well as gaokao.
Now on the spot light. Everyone who are asking me to talk about silk road start reading here. Right now, China is in a tough spot with their overproduction problem. Here's a flow chart, from the start to now:
Steel industries fighting to get into the market
Too many steel suppliers leads to overproduction
One steel suppliers try to eliminate competitions by driving prices down.
Every steel supplier does the same.
Prices eventually go so low, sales price is lower than production price.
Every steel suppliers are now religions, praying their competitions will go bankrupt first so they can one day dominate the market.
CCP cracks down on religion, prayers not answered. Steel suppliers now in the negative, have to borrow money from banks.
Banking regulations stats they can only lend money to suppliers who are in business, i.e. have production and sales. Nobody can sack their workers and nobody can let their workers sit idle because it is also against the law to have idle workers.
Death spiral: Lending leads to production, production leads to loss, loss leads to lending.
China is not as stupid as you think. They know how supply and demand works. They did not foresee the death spiral because there is no precedent. In normal cases supply-demand imbalance even out naturally by supply side shutting down due to lack of profit. But this is China. Steel makers are not investing their own money in the business, they are getting their source of funds from the government are. They do not care if their factories do not turn a profit. Afterall, it's not their own business. "China is different." Damn right you are. China is the only country in the WTO whose majority of the population lacks independent thinking. The Chinese hierarchy system...it's a convenience. It tells you where to go, what to do, dulls your brain. The party wants us to make steel, I make steel, you make steel, everyone make steel! Everyone apply for a job for the steel making industry and everyone get subsidy from the government! Everyone drive down prices and everyone borrow money! Because the party says we need to make steel. To fix this death spiral, China needs a larger demand, and if they cannot create demand among themselves, they have to create demand among foreign countries...and there is no way in hell the Americans and Europeans will accept Chinese quality steel. So, turning their eye to Iran, Pakistan and other developing countries. Cue the one belt, one road protocol. Here's their pitch, dumbed down: China: Do you want GDP? Do you want groooowth? Learn from us! Build bridges! We can sell you steel at half price! Not like greedy Europeans. Really, that's it. Building infrastructure is one of the fastest way to bump your GDP, even if they end up useless later on. If China can sell their steel to those countries, they can effectively get rid of a lot of overproduction, maybe even evening out the supply-demand imbalances with the increase in demand! Two obstacles here. These developing countries have their own currency, and their other currency is in the form of foreign exchange, in USD. Foreign exchange risk still applies here. Secondly, because they are developing countries...often they don't have the money. The solution: lend them money. With RMB. Through the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank. This is going to kill 3 birds with one stone.
Provide capital...provide a means to demand for things. The steel makers can now make a sale, easing oversupply problem finally.
Weaken USD status, strengthen RMB status. Take loan out in RMB, repay with RMB...except you don't have RMB in your reserves. You take your USD from your foreign reserves, and exchange for RMB, because with closer ties with China supplying your every needs, there is no reason to be keeping those USDollars. Although AIIB says it's going to offer USD, Euro and RMB, you bet your ass that they are going to offer some very good conditions on taking loans out in RMB...the potential of further devaluation of RMB is already very attractive, I wonder what else they can add.
Debt settlement. China can now use your USD to repay your debt (fun fact: AIIB lending terms are on a 3 year basis, so they will be collecting their USD in 2019----Guess when the majority of China's foreign debts are due? 2020. Their timing is just perfect).
Positive cycle: Initial lending leads to sales of steel, sales of steel leads to infrastructure building, infrastructure building leads to more sales of other materials, which leads to more lending...the whole cycle leads to weaker USD status in these countries and strong RMB status.
Whew! That's a lot of research! Now that we got the AIIB out of the way, one belt is partially explained but to those who don't get it, high speed rail uses a lot of steel, and is considered infrastructure. Now that we've got AIIB and one belt under the belt, the last that remains: one road. This is when I'm going into /conspiracy level shit talking and I'm sure I'll be generating a lot of downvotes, so I'll keep it skippy. Here's a list of problems are facing that can be solved with one road(sea silk road):
Economy focused along shorelines
Dependency on natural resources from hostile foreign forces.
Here's how one road will help them solve these problems:
Trade to solve overproduction, already mentioned above.
Give China an excuse to exercise more controls on the sea, such as the entire South China Sea.
This is the most important. Control of sea routes will allow China to prioritize their freight routes over other countries. While SCS is going to be free, it will be "free with Chinese characteristics". Freights from China are going to flood the SCS and take up a lot of queue space in sea routes shared with other countries, namely Brunei, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan, Phili, Indonesia, Taiwa, Vietnam, etc. If you have ever tried queuing with the Chinese, you know how this will end.
Throwaway account + sorry for the English but I hope you guys can help me. Just a twenty something in the Philippines working on a barely above minimum wage job, but I have some advantages:
I've been using Goodbudget (used to be EEBA) on my Android for budgeting, it's a lot of help! I definitely have some personal finance knowledge and discipline when it comes to money, I think.
Job is relatively easy and public transportation (jeepneys and buses) is really cheap.
No debt whatsoever. Prefer to pay in cash or debit. I want a credit card for Internet purchases though. If I ever get a card I'll pay it as soon as possible.
Staying at parent's house. Just need to pay half the Internet and for cat food. Get free meals, lunch, housing, the works. Yeah, I'm aware I'm slightly privileged, but I living on my own is ridiculous with my current income, plus there's a less of a stigma.
Some disadvantages though: * Company has no benefits like 401k, IRA, employer matching, or something like that. * Unlikely to get a significant raise since I'm pretty happy with my current position. Plus, meh, work. * Dropped college (no diploma) and don't really have that much of a skillset. The Philippines is heavily prejudiced against anyone without a college degree here, pfft. I probably need to study again. Here's my monthly budget: Savings and investments 20% investing on stocks. Been investing constantly every month. Stock account has about 23% of my annual income in it already. 7.6% on Savings. Just started putting into this 4 months ago. I dunno what I'm gonna use this for, probably for emergencies purchases or something. Note that I don't need emergency money for hospital visits and the like. Constant Expenses 7.6% on Internet 3.8% on cat food 4.6% for public transportation 2.9% for Internet hosting... for a hobby. Variable Expenses 23-30% on Guilt-free money for eating out, movies, gym, etc. Don't really eat out that much since I prefer to bring lunch to work. 30% or the rest is free money I can allocate into anything. Right now, I'm putting most of this into a "buy something fund" for purchasing stuff or extra money for my guilt-free expenses (I rarely do that though). So far, bought a 3DS, a mid-range computer(bought this after saving for 6 months), and some games. Pretty happy with them! If I get a raise, it most of it will probably become free money, rather than going into my guilt-free funds. My financial goals are:
Have enough money to comfortably "retire".
Hopefully earning enough from investing or my website to leave job.
Here's what I don't know what to do about:
I really want to put more of my free money into investing, but is that wise? More into stocks? Bonds? All of my investments are currently in stocks.
My dad has been bugging me to "invest" into Bitcoin... After some research, I think it's pretty unpredictable, although I'm leaning toward putting some minimum amounts into it, like $10 or so. Should I allocate some of my stock money into this or from my free money?
After reading here for a while, I was thinking if I should get a 401k. We've got something similar, but I don't understand it that much yet and might not be implemented yet. Can anyone help me understand this and this?
Started learning a bit about FOREX trading, but stopped. I could return and relearn though.
Is investing in real estate reasonable with my level of income? I sort of want to start it, but have no idea how to.
My computer is the most important thing I own, for work and for play. Thinking if I should set aside some for upgrades or the eventual breakdown. How long does a computer last anyway? I expect about 2-4 years at least since that's how long my laptops last before going kaput.
I still want some stuff to buy, like say more games (a new one every 1 or 2 months), some funds for advertising my website (and possibly earn from it a bit, hopefully). Maybe one of those nice, Cintiq pads... Don't really want or need a car, ever. Instead, I want a bicycle, maybe an E-bicycle, but E-bicycles suck here in the Philippines. But, I'm fine even if I don't have some form of personal transportation.
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